Ligue 1: Toulouse vs Lens! A single absence could disrupt everything, making Lens not invincible anymore?

Today's first match to talk aboutLigue 1: Toulouse vs Lens!

Lens officially declared with pride,they currently hold a record of 12 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, matching their best ever start to a season.

Indeed remarkable, truly at their peak.

But once at the top, every subsequent step might lead downward.

According to official Lens data, their 308 tackles at this stage are the highest ever in Ligue 1 history, and their 171 interceptions rank second across all five major European leagues, showing extremely strong pressing and interception ability.

Why are they so strong?

Because of advanced tactics and resource allocation.

Let's look at how Lens executes their pressing.

Firstly, they apply tight man-to-man marking upfront.

When the opposing center-back receives the ball, he findsall passing lanes blockedand is forced to play a long ball.

Note: This center-back cannot see his teammates far away as we do with a bird’s-eye view; forced long passes are generally inaccurate and easy to intercept.

Also, notice Lens commits a large number of players.

In this right half zone alone, they send 7 players to press!Creating a 7 vs 5 numerical advantage in this localized area.

Lens only has 10 outfield players total, so deploying 7 here leaves other areas very vulnerable.

What if they fail to win the ball? What happens then?

It becomes very dangerous.

Because only 3 players remain to cover a large defensive area, which is very challenging.

Fortunately, Lens has a very strong defensive midfielder to cover behind — Sangaré.

He is currently the undisputed leader in tackles in Ligue 1.

Why is Sangaré the most valuable player in Lens, not someone else?

Because he is crucial; without such a strong defensive midfielder covering, Lens’s aggressive pressing could backfire.

But today, Lens faces a dilemma.

Lens has 5 players suitable for the defensive midfield role, so their bench depth is normally sufficient.

However, the Africa Cup of Nations took away both Sangaré and Haidara, so they cannot play tonight;

and Openda is confirmed to transfer, so he won’t feature today;

leaving only Bratovic and the young Silla, who have played a combined total of just 215 minutes this Ligue 1 season and are relatively fringe players.

Can these two support Lens’s highly aggressive forward-pressing system? I am not confident.

Moreover, they are missing right-back Aguilar.

Aguilar ranks second among all 444 Ligue 1 players in high-intensity runningand is a very hardworking player.

Like Sangaré,he has participated in every Ligue 1 match so far, without missing any game.

He only came off the bench once due to feeling unwell,which was the only match this season he didn’t start — Lens lost 2-0 to Metz, their only defeat in the last 10 Ligue 1 games..

They won the other 9 matches, but lost when Aguilar didn’t start, and the right-side defense was noticeably weak, showing how important Aguilar is.

Toulouse is quite interesting today.

Lens is the strongest pressing team in Ligue 1,but Toulouse has the lowest possession rate in the league at only 40.9%,meaning they don’t prioritize ball control and are very accustomed to playing without the ball — they might not fear Lens’s intense pressing since they rarely have possession, so what is there to press?

They are excited to face Lens, as if energized by adrenaline.

Coach Martinez said,they didn’t even take January 1st off and trained as usual,showing a very serious attitude.

Fans’ support is also intense, with tickets selling very well and possibly breaking this season’s attendance record.

Although Lens has been performing very well recently,

Toulouse has also played excellently in their last three Ligue 1 matches and is in good form.

Lens’s weakness is that to win the title, they must seek victory and are not comfortable with draws — they have the fewest draws in Ligue 1 this season, only one in 16 matches.

But this mindset might be disadvantageous against a team like Toulouse, who calmly plays on the counterattack and with Lens missing strong defensive midfielders.

So, can Toulouse satisfy their fans? What do you all think? I look forward to them securing at least a draw or better!

Alright, for today’s other matches, I will share my written insights tonight. If anything is unclear, feel free to ask me. “Watch and understand the game,” see you then!

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