Supercomputer predicts the Premier League champion after the first half of the season

Opta predicts Arsenal has the highest probability of claiming the Premier League title this season, whereas Manchester United remains underwhelming, with the competition for the top five and relegation becoming more heated.

According to Opta’s latest predictive model, Arsenal is widening its lead in the race for the 2025–2026 Premier League title. Mikel Arteta’s squad is rated with a 77.11% chance of winning, far surpassing the current champions Manchester City’s 18.3%. Significant improvements in defense, effective full-pitch pressing, and adaptable possession play have solidified the “Gunners” on their quest for a crown they have awaited for over 20 years.

Conversely, Manchester United has become the biggest source of disappointment this season. Opta’s data shows the “Red Devils” have only a 0.8% chance to finish in the top 4 and a 12.48% chance to end sixth, reflecting their inconsistent form and confidence crisis under Amorim. While Arsenal is progressing like a champion, MU seems stuck in tactical chaos.

Behind these two historic clubs, the fight for the top 5 is fiercer than ever. Although Man City is fading in the title race, they are almost guaranteed a top spot with a 52.37% chance to finish second. Aston Villa remains a fascinating contender with a 49.02% chance to place third, closely followed by Liverpool at 39.14% likely to finish fourth. Chelsea, despite recently dismissing coach Enzo Maresca after poor results, still holds a 21.62% chance to secure fifth place, keeping their hopes for European competition alive.

At the bottom end, the relegation battle is equally brutal. Wolves face the highest risk of relegation at 88.29%, followed by Burnley at 61.22% and West Ham at 43.78%. These figures highlight that the survival fight in the lower half of the table is as intense as the championship chase.

If Arsenal maintains their consistent form, the 2025–2026 Premier League title is very likely to belong to the “Gunners”, while Manchester United and Chelsea will have to fight hard to salvage an otherwise forgettable season.