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The Arsenal and Man City title race: Arsenal’s weak attack could cost them dearly

Arsenal leads the Premier League by more than 2 points over Man City, who are second. Yet, Arsenal’s attacking line could end up costing Arteta’s team.

Being top of the table at Christmas gives Arsenal a fantastic feeling, but Mikel Arteta is aware there’s still a lot to achieve. In 3 out of the last 5 seasons, Arsenal were leading at Christmas but ultimately lost both their lead and the championship.

The issue with Arsenal’s attack

Arsenal’s 31 goals rank them second highest in the Premier League, yet their attack hasn’t truly ignited due to the long-term absences of Martin Odegaard, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus, and Gyokeres.

A major question for Arsenal is whether their ability to capitalize on set pieces can be sustained throughout the entire season.

Recently, The xG Philosophy website released worrying statistics for Arsenal. Arteta’s team scored zero goals from 6.16 expected goals (xG) over their last three matches (excluding penalties).

Against Crystal Palace in the Carabao Cup, Arsenal’s goal came from an own goal by Lacroix despite taking 25 shots. Against Wolves, Arsenal won thanks to own goals by Johnstone and Mosquera. Sandwiched between these was a 1-0 victory over Everton, secured by a penalty from Gyokeres.

According to Sky Sports, Arsenal’s attack has been dry in December. Astonishing stats show it has been over 300 minutes since an Arsenal player scored a non-penalty goal. Since the 60th minute of their 3-0 win over Club Brugge, Arsenal has relied on three own goals and one penalty.

This is not the first time Arsenal have faced this issue around Christmas. In December 2023, they suffered back-to-back Premier League defeats before Christmas against Fulham and West Ham, and were knocked out of the FA Cup despite dominating Liverpool with numerous chances.

Arsenal have depended on three own goals and one penalty in their last three matches

A year ago, Arsenal drew consecutively with Fulham and Everton in December. Their 1-0 win over Ipswich just after Christmas was not convincing offensively. They were later eliminated from the Carabao Cup despite controlling the first half of the semi-final first leg against Newcastle.

Will this bad habit cost Arsenal?

With their attack underperforming, Arsenal fans have reason to worry that their beloved team might again lose ground in the title race.

Meanwhile, Man City’s attack has been more explosive than Arsenal’s. Pep Guardiola’s side has scored 41 goals, the highest in the league and 10 more than Arsenal. This attacking surge has helped Man City close the gap on Arsenal.

In November, Man City trailed Arsenal by 7 points and struggled with 3 losses in 10 matches. But currently, they have taken the full 18 points from their last 7 games, scoring 21 goals—the most in the league during that period—and conceding only 8.

While some teams rely on set pieces, Man City employ a “classic” attacking style thanks to Erling Haaland. In 17 matches, Haaland has scored 19 of City’s 41 goals, with Phil Foden adding 7; no other player has surpassed 5 goals. This is almost a one-man show, highlighting Haaland’s exceptional quality and effectiveness.

Rayan Cherki has regained form since arriving from Lyon, providing 6 assists, and Jeremy Doku’s dribbling skills make Man City’s attack difficult to stop. With five consecutive Premier League wins, Man City demonstrate the strength of a title contender, enough to make Arsenal cautious.

Last season, Arsenal drew 14 Premier League matches, mostly 1-1 results. This season, they have tried to improve by adding more attacking options like Gyokeres, Madueke, Eberechi Eze, and Martin Zubimendi, aiming to score a second goal before opponents can respond. However, Arsenal seems to be repeating their recent poor habits.

And if Arteta cannot help Arsenal enhance their attack, fans may once again see the “Gunners” lose the top spot to Man City.


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