Opta Supercomputer Predicts Outcome of MU vs Newcastle Match

Opta's supercomputer provides a balanced prediction for the Manchester United versus Newcastle match at Old Trafford, considering the absence of Bruno Fernandes for the Red Devils.

The 18th round of the Premier League presents a unique scenario with only one match on Boxing Day, featuring the encounter between Manchester United and Newcastle United at Old Trafford. This match will take place at 3:00 AM on December 27, 2025 (Vietnam time) and quickly attracted attention when Opta released probability predictions based on their supercomputer model.

According to Opta, Manchester United's chance of winning is estimated at 39.2%, while Newcastle holds a 34.2% chance of victory. The possibility of a draw is also considered quite likely, with a 26.6% probability. This assessment accurately reflects the current situation, as both teams face their own challenges regarding form and squad availability.

Manchester United enters the match weighed down by a 1-2 loss to Aston Villa, ending their previous four-match unbeaten streak. More concerning, the Red Devils remain without Bruno Fernandes due to injury.

Opta highlights a very unfavorable statistic: “Manchester United have not won any Premier League matches since the 2022/23 season when Bruno Fernandes did not start”. In seven such games, they lost six and drew one, scoring only four goals. The absence of their midfield leader forces creative responsibilities onto Matheus Cunha in Ruben Amorim’s formation.

Manchester United’s home form also offers little confidence. They have failed to win in their last three Premier League matches at Old Trafford and have gone ten consecutive games without a clean sheet. Defensive injuries and tactical experiments, such as pushing Lisandro Martinez into midfield, have caused instability in their system.

On the other side, Newcastle recently dropped points after conceding a 2-2 draw to Chelsea despite leading. However, that game showcased their biggest strength currently—the attack. Forward Nick Woltemade scored both goals and is in impressive form with seven Premier League goals this season.

Opta emphasizes: “Only three German players have scored more goals than Woltemade in their first Premier League season”, highlighting the real threat this striker poses.

Although Newcastle has also been hit hard by defensive injuries, they remain one of the teams conceding the fewest goals away this season. Additionally, recent head-to-head history favors the visitors, as Eddie Howe led Newcastle to victories over Manchester United in both matches last season, including a 2-0 win at Old Trafford.

Based on this data, Opta leans toward a tight and hard-to-decide match. With Manchester United missing their playmaker and Newcastle possessing a more cohesive attack, the supercomputer predicts the visitors have a solid chance to leave Old Trafford with at least one point.