$80 million over 4 years? Analyzing the Rockets' prospects of re-signing Eason: high likelihood of final agreement

On October 16th Beijing time, ESPN analyzed matters related to rookie contract extensions in the league, mentioning the Rockets' Eason. They are optimistic that Eason could re-sign with the Rockets for around $80 million over 4 years and believe there is a strong chance the two sides will reach a deal. The detailed analysis is as follows—

Why is an extension likely?

Eason is considered a darling in the data analytics field. Since being selected 17th overall in the first round of the 2022 draft, he has consistently delivered steady performances for the Rockets. Although he is expected to come off the bench again this season, his skill set as a versatile forward who can disrupt opponents' rhythm on both ends of the floor makes him highly valuable. Additionally, the Rockets have previously demonstrated the ability to offer reasonable long-term contracts to young core players, which lays the groundwork for an extension.

Why might an extension not happen?

The Rockets may focus on Eason’s injury history: in the 2023-24 season, he underwent season-ending surgery due to a left leg injury; last season, he missed 22 games because of the same leg issue. While he played all 82 games in his rookie year, he appeared in only 59 games over the past two seasons combined.

Regarding his role, Eason has started only 16 games in his career so far and is likely to remain the “sixth man” this season. Furthermore, the Rockets have already re-signed Jabari Smith Jr. (with a salary of $23.6 million starting next season) and are expected to re-sign Durant as well. Salary cap considerations may impact negotiations with Eason.

Potential offer: $80 million over 4 years

Experience from the “luxury tax threshold era” teaches teams to prioritize retaining core players approaching free agency while balancing future financial constraints. Considering Amen Thompson will be eligible for extension next summer, offering a backup player a contract averaging $20 million per year or more is difficult to justify.

Will the extension be finalized?

The likelihood of finalizing the extension is high. For Eason, given his injury history, securing a long-term deal to ensure financial security is a sensible choice; for the Rockets, General Manager Stone has consistently preferred to “lock in young players early,” so the team is expected to continue this approach and push for an extension with Eason.