Is Shohei Ohtani’s performance with runners in scoring position really a weakness? Japanese media analyze data to reveal his true value.

Los Angeles Dodgers’ two-way superstar and four-time MVP Shohei Ohtani hit a career-best 55 home runs this season, yet his 102 RBIs mark the lowest ever for a 55-homer season — the previous record belonged to Mark McGwire’s 58 homers and 123 RBIs in 1997. The main reason is that Ohtani often bats leadoff, so there are fewer runners on base ahead of him, and his batting average with runners in scoring position is relatively low.

Japanese media highlight that Ohtani’s batting average with runners in scoring position this season is .247, ranking only 101st in the league, which seems inconsistent with his monster-level offensive skills. Early in the 2024 season, his average with runners in scoring position dropped as low as .095, giving the impression that he struggled to hit when there were runners on base.

However, he made a huge improvement late last season: Ohtani’s batting average in 19 plate appearances with runners in scoring position soared to .842, setting a new Major League record. The dramatic contrast also included him hitting .000 with bases empty in early playoffs but producing heavily when runners were on base. Manager Dave Roberts humorously remarked, “I find it interesting. People used to worry about Ohtani’s average with runners in scoring position, and now we need runners on base for him to get hits? That’s kind of funny.”

Japanese media suggest that instead of focusing excessively on such isolated stats, it’s better to look at Ohtani’s actual contribution to winning. His “Win Probability Added” (WPA) has ranked first in the entire league for two consecutive years, at 7.3 and 5.9 respectively. After all, the value of RBIs varies depending on the game situation — for instance, his 40th homer last year was a walk-off grand slam.

Additionally, when there are runners on base, Ohtani receives more walks because opposing pitchers must pitch more cautiously. Also, his batting order position isn’t fixed as leadoff; during his time with the Angels, he often batted second or third, and in his half-season with the Dodgers, he mainly hit second. These factors subtly affect his batting stats with runners in scoring position.